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Campaign diary


June 16
Campaigning is suspended after the murder of the Yorkshire MP Jo Cox outside her constituency surgery

Mark Carney and Leave campaigner Bernard Jenkin clash in an exchange of letters over whether the Bank of England Governor has the right or duty to continue to make financial predictions during the pre-poll purdah

The Bank's monetary policy committee releases the minutes of its last meeting, which includes further warnings about possible threats to the pound and the global economy in the event of a Leave vote

Four Tory donors accuse Cameron of conducting a "bullying" campaign to persuade Britain to vote Remain.

MPs on all sides, including Boris Johnson, criticise Nigel Farage over a poster showing a procession of refugees and the tag line "Breaking Point". The photograph, taken last October, is of Syrians crossing the Croation border to a refugee camp in Slovenia

Bill Gates writes to the Times to say that Britain would be a less attractive place to do business and invest if it were outside the EU

June 15

George Osborne and Alastair Darling unite to spell out measures they say would be needed in an emergency Budget immediately after a vote to leave the EU, including a 2p rise in basic rate income tax, a 3p rise in the higher rate, a 5p rise in inheritance tax and £15bn of public spending cuts

Vote Leave unveils a parliamentary programme designed to prepare the route for Britain to leave the EU. Bills would include one to deport criminals, one to abolish VAT on domestic fuel and one to remove EU citizens' right to enter the country.

A flotilla on the Thames, led by Nigel Farage, to back fishermen who say their livelihoods are threatened by EU membership comes under a hail of abuse from Bob Geldof and other Remain supporters on the riverbank

65 Tory MPs write to protest about George Osborne's Budget threats, saying they would vote it down in Parliament

​
June 14


Jeremy Corbyn urges the whole Labour movement to back the Remain campaign, saying that to leave would threaten jobs and workers' rights

A YouGov poll for The Times gives the Leave campaign a seven-point lead, at 46% to 39% for Remain. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the difference at six points, with Leave on 53% and Remain at 47%

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council said that Brexit could lead to the destruction of the EU and Western political civilisation

Eurostat statistics show that 900,000 people were given citizenship of an EU state in 2014, 125,000 of them in Britain. Most came from outside Europe, with 40,000 of those gaining UK citizenship coming from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. 

The European Court of Justice upheld the UK's right to deny jobless EU migrants child benefit, saying  it was justified on the basis of protecting a state's finances.

The FTSE 100-share index suffers its biggest fall since the campaign began in February, bringing lost capitalisation over four days to £100bn. The pound falls to a two-month low.


June 13


Migration Watch says that net immigration would run at 250,000 a year for the next 20 years if Britain does not leave the EU

Gordon Brown, campaigning for Remain, said that illegal immigrants, rather than those arriving from within the EU, were the key issue. Writing in the Mirror, Ed Balls called for the EU to restore proper borders and put new controls on economic migration.

BT chairman Sir Michael Rake writes to the company's 80,000 employees saying that they should be aware of the risks attached to voting to leave the EU

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, says that he will vote to stay in the EU, adding that the economic fallout from a Brexit could harm the poorest.

Jeremy Corbyn clears his schedule for an "all-out push" to try to gather support or Remain.

June 12
David Cameron steps aside for 48 hours to allow Gordon Brown to lead the Remain campaign in an attempt to sway Labour voters

Leaked documents show that the Cabinet is considering allowing Turks holding special passports to enter Britain as part of a deal to control migration into Europe. Up to 1.5m people are believed to hold such passports

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times shows that 43% plan to vote to Leave against 42% for Remain
​
June 11


Online polls for the Independent and i put Leave ten points ahead at 55% to 45%

Sir James Dyson joins Lord Bamford in saying that he thinks Britain should vote to leave the EU

David Cameron says that a Brexit could threaten the "triple lock" that guarantees pensions will always rise

Germany's finance minister says his country would shut Britain out of the single market if it voted for Brexit

June 10

Security minister John Hayes writes in the Telegraph that Britain would be better able to tackle terrorism threats outside of the EU

June 9

John Major and Tony Blair go to Northern Ireland to warn that leaving the EU could damage the union, lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and threaten stability in the province.

Boris Johnson finds himself among five women for ITV debate. Amber Rudd, Angela Eagle and Nicola Sturgeon represent Remain, while Johnson is joined by Labour's Gisela Stuart and energy minister Andrea Leadsom.

George Soros says that a Brexit could lead to the disintegration of the EU.

​June 8

Health minister Sarah Woolaston abandons the Leave campaign and attacks its reliance on the £350m a day figure and its claims about the impact of Brexit on the health service.

Former Defence Secretary John Nott suspends membership of the Conservative party saying Cameron's claims about the impact of Brexit "border on dishonesty"

JCB tycoon Lord Bamford urges his 6,000 employees to back Brexit

Citigroup, which employs 9,000 in the UK, says it would "likely" move its some of its operations out of Belfast and London if Britain leaves the EU

June 7
Nigel Farage and David Cameron answer questions from an ITV studio audience - separately. Farage tells one questioner to "calm down", Cameron accuses Gove and Johnson of deceit

Banks increase foreign currency holdings by £59bn in a month - the biggest sale of sterling assets since 2009 - amid fears that the pound will crash if Britain leaves the EU

The World Bank cuts its grown forecasts for Britain and the world, citing the migrant crisis, terrorist attacks and the EU referendum

June 6
Labour MP Stephen Kinnock suggests that MPs could limit the withdrawal from Europe after a Brexit vote and that Britain could remain within the single market

The leaders of the six biggest trade unions write to the Guardian urging their six million members to vote for Remain

A YouGov poll for The Times puts Remain on 43% against 42% for Leave, with 11% undecided and 4% saying they will not vote

The Vote Leave campaign publishes a dossier of 50 criminals it says Britain cannot deport because of its membership of the EU. They include Learco Chindarmo, the teenage killer of headmaster Philip Lawrence

GMB leader Tim Roache says of Brexit campaigner Priti Patel "surely a contradiction in her name". Tory MP James Cleverly responded: "Is he sexist, racist, blind or all three?"

A Facebook alert is credited with sparking a surge in voter registrations among young people ahead of the midnight June 7 deadline. Hundreds of thousands have signed up in recent days, with 155,000 under-45s registering on Friday, 60% of them in response to the alert.

The director-general of the World Trade Organisation says it could take decades for Britain to disentangle and renegotiate trade agreements if it left the EU

The Vote Leave campaign publishes a dossier of 50 criminals it says Britain cannot deport because of its membership of the EU. They include Learco Chindarmo, the teenage killer of headmaster Philip Lawrence

270 members of Veterans for Britain write to The Sun urging troops to vote to leave the EU, saying that would make the Forces "freer, more effective, more democratic and more able to retain their distinctive capabilities and ethos".


June 5

John Major appears on the Andrew Marr show and describes Boris Johnson as a "court jester" leading a "squalid campaign" and says that the NHS would be as safe in Johnson, Gove and Duncan Smith's hands as a pet hamster with a hungry python.

On the same programme, Johnson brushed aside the attack and said there was "too much blue-on-blue" and that people wanted to hear the arguments for and against Brexit.

A YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain puts Leave ahead at 45% to 41% with 11% undecided and 3% saying they will not vote.

June 3
​

Michael Gove follows up David Cameron's appearance to represent Brexit in Sky News debate. He says campaign is all about hope and taking back control and insists the "we pay the EU £350m a week" line is justified. Members of the audience describe Brexit as "project lies" and liken him to a World War I general urging troops over the top without any idea of what awaits them on the other side. 

The Daily Express also hosts a debate with Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Kate Hoey arguing for Brexit and Chukka Umunna, Siobhan McDonagh and Richard Reed batting for Remain. Farage says that unless 18 migrants who came ashore in Dymchurch last week are returned to Calais, "we are in for a summer where we will see bodies washed up on Kent beaches". 

All six living former Labour leaders write to the Guardian urging party supporters to turn out to vote for Remain, saying: "If Labour stays at home, Britain leaves. And a vote to leave is a vote for a profound and permanent loss the whole country would feel."

The InFacts organisation, set up to counter Brexit claims, reports The Times, Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun to the Press regulator Ipso, accusing them of inaccuracies in what it calls the "sinful six" stories. It had already compained about eight previous stories.


June 2

David Cameron defends the  Remain campaign in Sky News public debate. Members of the audience accuse him of scaremongering, hypocrisy and waffling.

The Electoral  Commission sends out polling cards to foreign nationals who are not entitled to vote.

Angela Merkel warns that an Out vote would leave Britain isolated.

Jeremy Corbyn says that people concerned about immigration are not Little Englanders or xenophobes in a speech urging  Labour supporters not to be half-hearted about the EU. GMB leader Tim Roache urged the Labour leader to be bolder and braver in supporting the Remain campaign.

A Commons Home Affairs Select Committee says that 13,000 foreign criminals, many from EU countries, walking the streets awaiting deportation. Chairman Keith Vaz says that EU membership should make it easier to remove them, but this does not seem to have been the case.

Michael Gove says EU rules have prevented him from barring terrorism suspects from entering the UK

OECD publishes report saying Brexit would reduce growth in Britain and add to costs across Europe and the world

George Osborne says points system for immigration wouldn't work and accuses Brexit of "making up things as they go along"

Arsene Wenger and Björn Ulvaeus of Abba are among 140 European celebrities to sign a "love letter" to Britain urging it to stay within the  EU, published in the Times Literary  Supplement

An ICM poll for the Leave campaign finds that 55% of the people it interviewed thought that EU migration was bad for the NHS, 58% thought it was bad for schools, 67% said it was bad for housing and 54% bad for security. 58% said they would be unhappy if EU immigration continued at present levels

14 artists, including Anthony Gormley, unveil posters backing "Remain"

The RSPB and WWF say the safer option for nature is to stay in the EU. The RSPB gives both sides a platform to address its supporters.

June 1

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove call for an Australian points-style immigration system and Johnson says that entry will be barred to potential migrants who cannot speak English

May 31


ICM telephone and online polls for The Guardian put the Brexit campaign ahead for the first time. Both polls found that of those who had decided how they would vote 52% favoured leaving the EU and 48% wanted to remain. Brexit was also ahead when the don't knows were counted. In the phone poll the breakdown was 45% to 42% with 13% undecided. In the online survey the split was 47% to 44% with 9% undecided.

Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Gisela Stuart write in the Sun that leaving the EU would allow Britain to remove VAT from domestic fuel.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell criticises London mayor Sadiq Khan for sharing a platform with David Cameron

Commons Leader Chris Grayling tells the Guardian that leaving the EU would force up house prices and make it difficult for young buyers to get a foot on the ladder.

The EU anti-fraud office says that the community lost  €888m to bogus claims for aid with approved projects last year, compared with €901m in 2014. Member states recovered €187m, 10% less than the previous  year.

May 30

Sadiq Khan teams up with David Cameron on a Remain battlebus

Academics specialising in foreign and security policy take The Times to task over its report about plans for a European army.

Irish business leaders, including the O2 chief Ronan Dunne, the WTO founder Peter Sutherland and the fashion designer Paul Costelloe, write to the Guardian urging Irish citizens entitled to vote to register and back Remain.

May 29

A MORI poll of 600 economists for the Observer finds that 88% believe that leaving the EU would damage the national economy over the next five years

Brexiteer ministers Michael Gove and Priti Patel and former mayor Boris Johnson turn on David Cameron over immigration accusing him of being out of touch and of corroding public trust by failing to reduce the numbers coming to the UK

Nato generals and religious leaders write to the Sunday Telegraph and Observer to put the case to Remain.

John Major accuses Leave campaigners of  evasion, political trickery, fear-mongering and of provocative and irresponsible oratory. Tony Blair says that those in any doubt should vote Remain. David Owen says that Britain could negotiate trade deals that would see it prosper as a vibrant, self-governing democracy.

May 27

Treasury Select Committee denounces both sides in a report that says: "The public debate is being poorly served by inconsistent, unqualified and, in some cases, misleading claims and counter-claims. Members of both the ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ camps are making such claims." It takes issue with the Leave campaign's persistent and "highly misleading"reference to a £350m per week windfall that could be spent on the NHS.
It also criticises George Osborne over the  suggestion that families would be £4,300 worse off as a result of Brexit, saying it was a misleading interpretation of a Treasury analysis. The figure referred to GDP per household, but the average impact on household incomes would be smaller. 

The final statement from the G7 summit in Japan includes the sentence: "There are potential shocks of a non-economic origin. A UK exit from the EU would reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create, and is a further serious risk to growth."

Former HSBC chief Michael Geoghegan lists seven reasons Britain would be better off out of the EU, including taking back control of the financial sector, greater sovereignty over taxes, more power for the Bank of England and being better prepared for the next euro crisis.

Anti-terror watchdog David Anderson QC says Britaiin would lose its leading role in tackling organised crime and terrorism if it voted to leave the EU.
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The Times reports that details of moves towards an EU army are being kept secret until the day after the referendum. The paper says that the issue will be discussed at a summit on June 28, but papers will not be circulated to member governments until June 24.

May 26

Treasury report says that pensioners would be £187 a year worse off by 2018 and their assets would be devalued by up to £32,000 in the "severe shock scenario"

ONS publishes migration statistics showing that net immigration in 2015 was 330,000, an increase of 20,000 over 2014, which was entirely due to fewer people emigrating. Net immigration from within the EU was 184,000. In all, 308,000 people came from abroad to work in the UK, of whom 58% had a definite job to go to, leaving 130,000 looking for jobs, a "statistically significant" increase from 104,000 the previous year. Of the 52,000 Romanians and Bulgarians who came to work, 60% (31,000) had a job lined up.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president,  invites Boris Johnson to Brussels for a "reality check".
Johnson accepts the invitation and reciprocates with an invitation for Juncker to come to the UK to see "the damage done by EU membership".
A tweet from the G7 summit by Juncker's chief of staff tweets suggests that the 2017 gathering could see the "horror scenario" of Trump, Johnson and Marine Le Pen.

The Standard and Poor's ratings agency says that sterling's status as a reserved currency could be jeopardised by a Leave vote.

A Lord Ashcroft poll of 5,000 people finds that 65% expect Britain to vote to stay in the EU and that 58% will base their decision on instinct rather than "factual information".

May 25

Steve Hilton, a friend and former adviser to the Prime Minister, says that David Cameron's instincts are to support Brexit.

EU seeks to raise the cap on prime-time TV advertising from 12 minutes to 20 minutes in any hour. Ofcom currently limits advertising to an average of 7 minutes per hour over a day, 8 minutes at peak times and a maximum of 12 in any hour.

Operation Black Vote issues a poster showing an Indian woman and a white skinhead on a level seesaw under the slogan "A vote is a vote". 

The Office for National Statistics issues projections suggesting that the population of England will increase by 4 million over the next ten years, with the population of London rising to nearly 10 million. Corby could expect to see the biggest increase, while Barrow-in-Furness would see a decline. The number of people aged over 65 is predicted to increase by 20%.

A Daily Telegraph poll says that among those definitely planning to vote, 55% favour Remain and 42% Leave, with 3% undecided. Among Conservatives the split was 57% to 40%, among over-65s 53% to 44% and among men 55% to 42%

The Civitas think-tank challenges George Osborne's assertion that Brexit would cost families £4,300 a year and the importance of trade within Europe. It says that exports to the 11 founder members of the single market had fallen from a peak of 68% in 2007 to 35% last year and that exports to the other 11 members had increased by only 2.5% last year.

David Cameron expresses doubts about the effects of Brexit on Britons living abroad, their rights to health services, housing and ease of travel. 

Michael Gove says that red tape has cost British businesses £8.43bn over the past five years

World Trade Organisation chief Roberto Azevedo says that Brexit would cost British consumers £9 billion a year in import tariffs and exporters a further £5.5 billion. He says Britain would have to renegotiate terms of trade with 161 WTO members, and lose the low-tariff or tariff-free access to 58 countries covered by 36 EU trade agreements. An alternative would be for Britain to scrap all trade barriers and become a duty-free state, but he thinks that unlikely.

The Office for National Statistics publishes a guide to British contributions to the EU, factoring in the rebate and EU investment in the UK's public and private sectors. It concludes that the net contribution in 2014 was £7.1bn.

May 24

A group of generals and admirals publish a pamphlet entitled "Veterans for Britain" urging Service personnel to vote Leave.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research think-tank issues a projection showing that if immigration were cut by two-thirds after a Leave vote, GDP would be 9% lower and taxes would rise by about £400 in today's money by 2065, compared with a vote to Remain.

Another paper from NIESR reports that EU immigration had not had a negative impact on UK natives' job prospects or affected wages, although there might have been a small negative impact on low-skilled workers' pay. A vote to leave and a resultant change in immigration rules might have a small positive impact on such workers, but that would be more than offset by higher taxes so that take-home pay would fall.

The Supreme Court rules that UK citizens who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will not be allowed to vote in the referendum

A survey of who people trust to tell the truth about the EU puts Boris Johnson top at 31%, followed by Jeremy Corbyn on 28% and Nigel Farage on 22%. David Cameron scored 18% and Michael Gove 16%

A YouGov poll puts the two sides neck and neck with 41% each, 13% undecided and 4% saying they wouldn't vote.

Richard Sharp, a former Goldman Sachs banker who is a member of the Bank of England's financial policy committee, tells the Treasury Select Committee that there was little threat of investors pulling out of the UK in the event of a Leave vote. He says the pound would fall, interest rates would rise and there would be some disruption, but that it would not be a major economic setback.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank says that Brexit would cost between £20bn and £40bn and mean two more years of austerity and a weaker pound. The country would save £8bn a year, but that would be offset by a fall in GDP.

Scientists say that leaving the EU would disrupt research and slow access to new medicines 

May 23

Treasury report says that leaving the EU would cut GDP by 6% in 2018, put 820,000 people out of work and lead to an 18% fall in house prices. It also says that the cost of a family holiday in Europe could rise by £230.

Quoting the report, George Osborne asserts that leaving Europe would create a year-long "DIY recession".


David Cameron says that the pound could fall by 12% if Britain leaves EU and that people might require visas to visit EU countries

A Guardian poll shows 44% in favour of Remain and 40% for Leave.

NHS chief Simon Stevens says that Brexit would harm the NHS because it would put the economy in a "tailspin". He says the health service benefits enormously from the 130,000 doctors, nurses and carers who have come to Britain from other EU countries.

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